Addendum to Analysis
March 27th, 2008Data that bolsters my assessment of the 2008 campaign, with its emphasis on John McCain, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, is available today, and I will bold the parts that I believe are most important to understand when predicting the race without bias.
New polls show many Democratic voters could swing their support to Sen. John McCain in the general election if their candidate isn’t nominated. […] The poll suggests if Obama wins, a majority of Clinton supporters — 51 percent — would be dissatisfied or upset. The number was 35 percent in January. The poll had a sampling error of plus or minus 7.5 percentage points. […] According to a Gallup Poll taken March 7-22, about one in five Obama supporters — or 19 percent — said they will vote for McCain if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. If Obama’s the nominee, more than one in four Clinton supporters — or 28 percent — said they’d vote for McCain.
The last time many Democrats were willing to vote for a Republican was during the Reagan years: 26 percent in 1980, and 25 percent in 1984.
The bitterness of the Democratic division is not the only reason so many Democrats are considering voting for McCain. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. Poll taken February 1-3 suggests many Democrats like McCain. The poll showed Democrats were split over McCain: 44 percent said they like him, 42 percent disliked him.
Not good, my friends, especially not when he is giving sensible, moderate speeches against unilateralism and in favor of the World while Democrats bicker over whose Pastor is the prettiest and whose victories are more legitimate.