The Keeper of the Keys
December 5th, 2006Robert Gates was approved by the Senate Panel hearing his preliminaries, and I like what I heard from his speech.
“It’s my impression that frankly there are no new ideas on Iraq,” Mr. Gates said, noting there are multiple government reviews underway besides the Iraq Study Group. “The question is: is there a way to put pieces of those different proposals together in a way that provides a way forward?” The group headed by James A. Baker III and Lee H. Hamilton is expected to propose that American combat troops be pulled back from Iraq, but not necessarily withdrawn from Iraq, by sometime in 2008. Mr. Gates supported the administration’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003. In his testimony today, however, he made clear that his operating style and approach would be in some respects different from Mr. Rumsfeld and his deputies, who have led the Defense Department for nearly six years. He expressed grave reservations about taking military action against Iran, an idea that the Bush administration has not ruled out as it seeks to halt Tehran’s nuclear program.
“I think that military action against Iran would be an absolute last resort,” Mr. Gates said. “I think that we have seen in Iraq that once war is unleashed, it becomes unpredictable. And I think that the consequences of a conflict — a military conflict with Iran could be quite dramatic. And therefore, I would counsel against military action, except as a last resort,” he added. Mr. Gates said that he opposed an attack on Syria, which the Bush administration has criticized, along with Iran, for contributing to the instability in Iraq. Mr. Gates’s most direct statements about Iraq came during exchanges with Senators Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat who is soon to take over as the panel’s chairman, and John McCain of Arizona, who will become the top-ranking Republican.
“Do you believe that we are currently winning in Iraq?” asked Mr. Levin, who has pushed for announcing a date to begin withdrawals of American troops from Iraq. “No, sir,” Mr. Gates replied, adding that he did not believe the United States was losing, either. As recently as October, Mr. Bush had said that “absolutely, we’re winning” in Iraq, though he also made clear he was dissatisfied with the pace of progress there. But Senator John Warner, the Virginia Republican, noted that General Peter Pace, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, had used a formulation at a policy forum in Washington on Monday that was much like the one that Mr. Gates used in his testimony. Mr. Warner, the armed services committee chairman, said the message from last month’s elections was that “change is needed.”
Mr. Gates said he agreed with Mr. Levin that it was “worth looking into”” the idea of withdrawing troops to instill a “sense of urgency” in the Iraqi government to resolve sectarian strife. Moments later, under questioning from Senator McCain, Mr. Gates said there had not been sufficient troops in Iraq immediately after the 2003 invasion. If confirmed, he said, he would consult with ground commanders about whether they wanted additional forces. Mr. Gates also appeared to differ slightly with Mr. Bush’s frequent formulation that Iraq is the “central battlefield” in fighting terrorists. Asked if he agreed with that description, Mr. Gates called Iraq “one of the central fronts in the war on terror” but that the United States also faced a “dispersed” enemy of Islamic militants worldwide. But he was more direct in criticizing the Bush administration’s decision to disband the Iraqi Army and, for a time, to bar from government jobs tens of thousands of Iraqis who were members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party.
It is all the right thing to say, but the key here is what the President thinks of him and whether or not he agrees and is willing to listen. Preliminary guesses should all be “No,” as I suspect that he’s the same man who fired Paul O’Neill for being pragmatic and considerate of reality. If he’s changed, all the better for the country and Iraq, but this report makes me wonder. How changed can a man be if he’s still arguing over whether or not we’re “winning” the War — with his newly nominated, by him, Defense Secretary. Ugh.
Robert Gates might be the gatekeeper, but George Walker holds all the keys. If he wants to open new doors, Gates is there, but don’t be stunned if he doesn’t. This is a President with a highly dysfunctional decision process both in his head and chain of command.