Unintended Musings
Friday, October 13th, 2006I didn’t intend for this entry to seem as if I were going through a potpourri of points and moving on, but that’s how it works. It’s an unintended consequence of reading that occasionally you’ll muse, but it’s not a bad one. Let’s go, shall we?
Mark Warner has bowed out of the Race for President, 2008. I never really thought he could win it, as I consider others like Bayh, Vilsack and even Clinton stronger than a one-term Governor, so I’m not too terribly disappointed.
Besides, if he were the Right Man for the Presidency, he’d run. Men who are Right for the Job have the Drive for it and Lust it. It’s not cool in political circles to say that a man should want to be President so much that he’d run at the chance, but that’s what a President should do. It means that they’re focused on doing the Job and doing it Right. George W. Bush thinks of himself as a Martyr who was pushed into the Presidency by God. We all know how that turned out. The only Presidents I can think of who didn’t really want it was Truman and Washington, but they’re exceptions to the Rule. (Others have wanted it too much, and yes, there is such a thing: Kennedy and Nixon are strong examples. But, in the end, to be an effective President you have to want to be President. Not that that’s the sole requirement; it certainly isn’t.)
My dear Slate magazine is running an article about the Axis of Evil and how it came to be; to me, it’s representative of my most followed Law in Foreign Policy: the Law of Unintended Consequences. Whatever you do, there will be a Consequence that you do not intend; you must, therefore, do everything you can to preempt and prepare and attempt to envision all potential outcomes. George W. Bush didn’t do that when he gave his Axis speech, and we can trace the outcome in the mushroom clouds over North Korea and the nuclear plants under Iranian sand hills.
In his first State of the Union Address in January 2002, George W. Bush deployed the expression “axis of evil” to describe the governments of Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. Critics jumped on the president for his belligerent rhetoric. But the problem with Bush’s formulation wasn’t his use of the term “evil,” a perfectly apt description of the regimes of Saddam Hussein, the Iranian mullahs, and Kim Jong-il. The real issue was with the “axis” part. With the reference to the Axis powers of World War II, Bush suggested that there was some sort of alliance or cooperation among these three enemies of the United States. His turn of phrase indicated that they represented a unitary problem and implied that in taking on one, America would be dealing with all three.
Nearly five years later, we can see the damage caused by the president’s too-cute slogan and the muddled thinking behind it. By failing to distinguish clearly among the overlapping security threats presented by rogue states, nuclear proliferators, and supporters of terrorism, Bush helped bring his own nightmare to life. Thanks to his foreign policy, many of the world’s dictators do now function as a kind of anti-American axis, in a way they didn’t when he made that speech.
Let’s look back at the members circa 2002. Though they shared an interest in proliferating and were all brutal violators of human rights, the regimes in Iraq, Iran, and North Korea posed distinct and very different problems for American foreign policy. Saddam’s Baath fascists in Iraq were shooting at American planes in the no-fly zone and defying the international community over sanctions and inspections. But as we now know, they weren’t major sponsors of terrorism, and were nowhere near building, buying, or giving nukes to others. The theocrats in Iran, on the other hand, had a long history of backing anti-American terrorists and presented a longer-term proliferation threat. North Korea’s Stalinists were stroking their fuel rods, menacing the South as usual, and counterfeiting dollars, but not supporting terrorism. All three regimes were hostile to the United States, but their animosity wasn’t synchronized in any meaningful way.
Now, consider the axis today. Our attacking Iraq prompted Muammar Qaddafi, a Little Brother of Evil, to put up his hands and surrender his nuclear effort. But Iran and North Korea drew from Bush’s idealist invasion the realist lesson that only a nuclear deterrent could preserve them from regime change. Kim, in particular, seems to have taken the point that the American war machine could instantly pulverize his tanks and missiles massed along the DMZ. This meant he needed to accelerate his deterrent efforts by trying out his Pacific-spanning Long Dong missile and cramming for a nuclear test. Bush’s adamant policy of nondiscussion made matters worse, ensuring that neither country would slow down or back away from its atomic rush. He might just as well have announced a prize for the first successful detonation.
But the president’s biggest act of axis-enhancement was tying up our military in Iraq and antagonizing our allies. While the global cop was busy in Baghdad, the world’s other worst villains staged a jailbreak. They understood that Bush couldn’t readily respond to their provocations with force. The opportunity cost of occupying Iraq has also been felt in Syria and Sudan, among the other places where evil has gone unchecked for want of effective American leadership. At another level, our Bush- and Iraq-inspired unpopularity has spurred an informal new post-Cold War anti-American International, with Hugo Chávez, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and George Galloway running for General Secretary.
There are a lot of people in Washington that I’d like to sit down with over a nice dinner, gauge who they are, and how they consider things, really. Mainly in foreign policy circles, but Senators, too, and that even includes soon-to-be-ex-Senator Rick Santorum, who is running for dear life in Pennsylvania and seems to have taken to flashing a Sympathy Card in his attempt to get re-elected. Poor guy, but, I’ve always been sure that Santorum would lose. Pennsylvania’s a Conservative Liberal state — meaning that it’s purple, but a darker shade of. It isn’t because of the gay-comments that Santorum is losing — it’s because of Bob Casey. Casey is the strongest candidate in Pennsylvania to win any election, and I knew this one was over from the start. Not that he’ll be guaranteed victory in 2012, when he runs again, but in 2006? Unbeatable.
I read something humorous this morning in Time. Perhaps you read it, too. Can Dick Cheney save the Republican Party? In a word, No. Now I’d like to ask my own question: Can Dick Morris Save Foreign Policy and the GOP? In a word, DickMorrisisapieceofshit. His latest column urges Bush to seize Korea — a crisis of his own making — and turn it into a political plus. How shameless. He should go back to sucking toes. Maybe then we wouldn’t have to hear him.
Sad thing is, I’m sure someone in the White House is listening.