Eye of the Tiger
October 22nd, 2006Newsweek has heartening news in its most recent pages. First is this.
For two years the Democratic political establishment has been unabashedly applying one litmus test to candidates: their ability to win. In the Senate, Schumer took flak from activist groups when he backed candidates like Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, who is anti abortion rights. In the House, Demo-cratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Rahm Emanuel corralled a group of Iraq and Afghanistan vets to run as “macho Democrats” against Republican incumbents. At Howard Dean’s Democratic National Committee–well, who’s even heard anything from Howard Dean? He’s largely taken a back seat to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in making the Democrats’ prime-time case. “The days of Democrats’ having to check 28 boxes before they run are over,” Schumer says. “We want to win.”
Second, is this, also from Newsweek.
If the elections for Congress were held today, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll, 60 percent of white Evangelicals would support the Republican candidate in their district, compared to just 31 percent who would back the Democrat. To the uninitiated, that may sound like heartening news for Republicans in the autumn of their discontent. But if you’re a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, you know better. White Evangelicals are a cornerstone of the GOP’s base; in 2004, exit polls found Republicans carried white Evangelicals 3 to 1 over Democrats, winning 74 percent of their votes. In turn, Evangelicals carried the GOP to victory. But with a little more than two weeks before the crucial midterms, the Republican base may be cracking.
If something doesn’t give—and quick—Republicans will view 2004 as the good ol’ days. Fifty-five percent of likely voters in the new NEWSWEEK poll say they would vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, versus 37 percent who say they would vote for the Republican. That’s not surprising; the Democrats have been leading in the opinion polls for months. But the new poll suggests—from the leanings of bellwether voting blocs to voters’ priorities—that a possible Republican loss could turn into a rout.
Good news, but let’s not jinx it, Newsweek. The Detroit Tigers found out last night that being a Paper Champion doesn’t make you the King, and I don’t want the Democratic Party to experience the same.