Office of the Independent Blogger

In Poland, the President’s twin brother is going to become the Prime Minister. Isn’t that creepy? It’d be like having Bill Clinton as President and Hillary as Speaker of the House; like having George and Jeb in similar position. It just isn’t right.

The Telegraph is running an article about North Korea and China. I hate the beginning portion, where the author runs his mouth about the Clintons as appeasers, and I hate the ending, too, where he uses a false talking point to draw the wrong conclusion.

For it is China, not the United States, that has the power to decide the fate of North Korea. It is China that has consistently propped up the regime’s basket-case economy. It is China that has hitherto resisted calls from the United States and Japan for tougher action when Pyongyang has broken its word. It might be thought that China gains little from having a madman as both a neighbour and a dependant. Until now, however, it has suited Beijing quite well - better, at any event, than a North Korean collapse. Moreover, North Korea has been more than merely a buffer state. It has been a useful proxy, allowing China to probe the vulnerability of South Korea and Japan and to assert Chinese parity with the United States in matters of Asian security.

The big question is whether or not this might be about to change. For perhaps the most significant thing that happened last week was that Kim fired his missiles in defiance not just of the United States, Japan and South Korea but also of China. Before July 4, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese Prime Minister, explicitly warned North Korea not to heighten diplomatic tension. By ignoring that warning, the Dear Leader can scarcely have endeared himself to his patrons in Beijing. The Korean peninsula has seen more than enough bombs and missiles in the past 100 years. But when the Chinese finally ditch crazy Kim, it will be time for some real celebratory fireworks.

First: China has no real power to change the North Korean regime. Whatever influence China may have on North Korea is negated by the fact that China needs North Korea. North Korea can, if relations deteriorate, cease patrolling their border and allow refugees to flee into China, which is a major fear of the already overpopulated and starving “People’s Republic.” To be sure, China didn’t appreciate Korea’s actions, but they’re not likely to do anything that’ll harm that regime and sink it, and they certainly won’t join us in war. Why would China ever allow us to occupy a country right beneath them?

There aren’t going to be any changes between China, America and North Korea, and there’s not going to be any fighting, either, in all likelihood. This is a situation that can only be changed by a joint South Korean-America diplomatic effort — a long, sustained one, aimed at the ultimate goal of reconciliation. Unfortunately, the Bush Administration has the stomach for negotiation that China has for human rights.

This entry was posted on Sunday, July 9th, 2006 at 4:14 pm and is filed under Outside Retort (Current Affairs).